USDA experts in their quarterly report increased the estimates of soybean and corn stocks as of September 1, 2021, but lowered the estimate of wheat stocks. In addition, they raised their forecast for soybean production, and lowered their forecasts for wheat and corn, which surprised the market and increased pressure on prices.

The estimate of US corn production in 2020/21 MY was reduced by 2 million tons to 358.5 million tons due to a decrease in sowing and harvesting areas to 90.7 and 82.3 million acres, respectively, as well as a decrease in yields by 0.6 bushel / acre up to 171.4 bushels / acre or 10.75 t / ha.

Due to a decrease in exports amid increased competition and a drop in ethanol production, ending stocks of corn in 2020/21 MY increased to 31.5 million tons, which is 36% less than as of September 1, 2020, but exceeds analysts' forecasts.

December corn futures at the Chicago CBOT yesterday fell by only $ 0.88 / t to $ 211.3 / t, despite an increase in inventories and a decline in export sales for the week by 89% to 370.3 thousand tons. Export sales since the beginning seasons have already amounted to 25.32 million tons, which is 2.8% ahead of last year's rates.

The forecast for soybean production in the USA in 2020/21 MY was increased by 1.2 million tons to 114.7 million tons due to an increase in sowing and harvesting areas by 0.3 million acres to 83.4 and 82.6 million acres, respectively, and an increase in yields by 0.8 bushels / acre to 51 bushels / acre or 3.43 t / ha.

Ending stocks of soybeans in the United States in the 2020/21 season amounted to 6.9 million tons, which, thanks to active exports to China, is 51% lower than as of September 1, 2020, although it exceeds analysts' forecasts by 47%.

November futures for soybeans at the Chicago SWOT yesterday fell by 2.5% to $ 460 / t, although export sales of soybeans from the United States for the week amounted to rather high 1.09 million tons, and in general reached 24.3 million tons in the season.

In a new report, USDA experts estimated wheat production in the United States in 2020/21 MY at 49.8 million tons, which exceeds the forecast for September, and ending stocks of the season at 48.44 million tons, which is 18% less than on September 1, 2020 and by 4% - according to analysts' forecasts.

Let us remind you that the rise in oil prices supported the prices for vegetable oils.

UkrAgroConsult