Ukraine will avoid starvation due to war, but most countries will not
The fighting in Ukraine is taking place in the places where the sowing campaign should take place, and its failure will lead to negative consequences for all countries. However, there will be no famine in Ukraine, since there are stocks of last year's record harvest, which simply cannot be exported. Those countries where this grain will not reach will suffer.
Economist, investment banker, deputy director of Dragon Capital Sergey Fursa told AgroPortal.ua about this.
“Ukraine is one of the largest exporters of agricultural products. If these products disappear from the market, there will be a rise in prices and food shortages. Since Europe is able to pay a higher price, there will be no shortage. The most painful blow will be to Asia and Africa, China. If we are talking about grain, then these are the countries of North Africa, Turkey, and corn is Asia, China,” Sergey Fursa notes.
He adds that Ukraine is a very important supplier of corn for China.
“Now China, although playing along with the Russian Federation politically, is interested in the conflict ending faster, otherwise it will threaten its food security. How long they can hold out without our corn is impossible to determine, but every day of the war is a loss for the PRC,” says Sergey Fursa.
The expert notes that the economic consequences of the war for Ukraine are currently impossible to predict.
It all depends on when the war ends. It's like we have losses, destruction of infrastructure. There will be losses due to the dead and refugees, but so far it is impossible to count it,” Sergei Fursa clarifies.