Ahead of tomorrow's November Supply and Demand Report (WASDE), they continue to improve their forecasts for an increase in global soybean production this season, which adds to the pressure on prices.

In a November report, FAO experts raised the forecast for world soybean production for 21/22 by 2.2 million tons to 382.3 million tons, which is 16.8 million tons more than last season's production level.

According to analysts' surveys, the forecast for the US soybean crop in 2021/22 MY in the November USDA report will increase by 0.95 million tons to 122 million tons, which will increase ending stocks in the United States, and will also increase the level of world stocks by 1.1 million tons. 6 million tons against 99.2 million tons last season.

Fairly bearish forecasts increased pressure on futures and November contracts for soybeans on the US stock exchange on Friday fell 1.4% to $ 438 / t, having lost 3.6% overall over the past week.

Export sales of soybeans from the United States for the week ended on October 28 at 1.864 million tons, but total export sales since the beginning of the season are 32.38 million tons, which is 33% less than a year ago due to rather low demand from China, awaiting receipt cheaper Brazilian soybeans.

According to the forecast of the USDA office in China, the forecast of soybean imports to China in 2021/22 mg will remain at 101 million tons against 99 million tons in the past.

Heavy rainfall in Brazil, as well as additional rainfall in Argentina, continue to accelerate planting rates and support good forecasts for soybean production in South America.

In Ukraine, there is also an increase in pressure on the purchase prices of soybeans with GMOs, since export prices in ports remain at the same level of $ 505-510 / t, or UAH 14,900-15,000 / t for soybeans, processors have reduced their prices by another 400-500 UAH / t per week to the level of 15800-16000 UAH / t with delivery to the plant, not wanting to overpay a lot, especially against the background of low demand for meal and cake.

Export demand prices for non-GMO soybeans remain at the level of $ 650-680 / t or UAH 19500-20300 / t with delivery to a port or border against the backdrop of rising shipping costs and virtually no railcar shipments to Belarus or Poland.

Graintrade