The USDA's new balance sheet with reduced wheat production and ending stock forecasts surprised traders as export forecasts for the EU and Russia have not been cut, meaning those exporters' stocks will rise.

The market reacted to the data of the report by lowering quotations. March futures for wheat in the US fell by 1.2-1.7%, including:

by $4.96/t to $283.5/t for soft winter wheat in Chicago,

by $5.14/t to $294.3/t for hard winter wheat in Kansas City,

by $4.22/t to $346.2/t for hard spring wheat in Minneapolis.

Strategie Grains experts lowered the forecast for soft wheat exports from the EU in 2021/22 MY by 0.8 million tons to 31.2 million tons, although the US Department of Agriculture left the mark at 37.5 million tons in February. As of February 6, the EU exported 16.9 Mt of soft wheat, including France - 5 Mt, Romania - 4.64 Mt and Germany - 2 Mt. Futures for European wheat on the Paris Stock Exchange fell by 1.25 € / t to 261 .5 € / t or 297.6 $ / t on the forecasts of the European Commission to reduce exports.

 Prices for Black Sea wheat on the Chicago exchange rose by $0.25/t to $315.25/t, but the pressure is increasing, which leads to lower purchase prices in Ukraine, where milling wheat is offered $288-290/t or 9200 -9250 UAH/t in the port and 8400-8500 UAH/t at the mill.

As of February 6, Ukraine exported 17.3mt of wheat out of a projected 24mt. Producers are still holding back sales pending estimates of the future harvest after the end of winter crops.

 According to Reuters, wheat imports by Egypt's private buyers have outpaced purchases by the state-owned operator, a trend that could continue as authorities try to reform bread subsidies and cut import costs. The FAO and two Middle East traders estimate that Egypt's private buyers in 2021 increased their wheat imports by 11% year-on-year to 6.9 Mt, while the government's GASC increased by 32% to 4.7 Mt.

propozitsiya.com