Corn prices rose last year on the back of unusually high rates and volumes of grain imports from China. Therefore, in the current season, analysts are trying to estimate the volume of purchases.

According to USDA experts, China will import 26 million tons of corn in 2021/22 MY, corresponding to the level of the previous season, although it will increase its own grain production from 260.7 to 273 million tons compared to last year.

At the same time, representatives of the FAS USDA in China believe that in 2021/22 MY corn imports will decrease to 20 million tons due to increased production and the use of cheaper feed. The forecast for corn production is reduced by 1 million tons to 272 million tons due to crop losses caused by the disaster in the North China Plain in July, partially offset by strong harvests in the north-east of the country.

China in 2020/21 MY became the world's largest importer of corn, ahead of Mexico, which imported 16.5 million tons. Imports of corn grew 4 times compared to 2019/20 MY, and 10 times from 2016/17 MY.

The increase in the export of corn from the US and Ukraine to China last season led to an increase in grain prices from $ 160-180 / t FOB to $ 270-300 / t FOB, and prices remain at a high level in the current season.

On Tuesday, the USDA will unveil the October supply and demand balance for corn, and lower estimates of imports for China could lead to a sharp jump in quotations.

As a reminder, the stocks report increased the pressure on the prices of soybeans and corn.

Graintrade