UGA: Ukraine will have a three-year supply of wheat. Even if nothing is sown
Ukraine will not starve, but the war will affect the world grain market.
Such an opinion in an interview with NV Business was expressed by the President of the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) Nikolay Gorbachev.
“Last year we grew a record harvest — 107 million tons of grain and oilseeds, of which 33 million tons of wheat and about 40 million tons of corn. Domestic consumption, for example, of wheat does not exceed 4 million tons per year. Ukraine exported 18 million tons of wheat, and there are still 15 million tons left. Minus the 4 million tons that our country uses per year, and we still have a three-year supply. This is on condition that we do not sow anything,” he explained.
The expert stressed that Ukraine plays a significant role in balancing prices and food availability, so the consequences of the war will be.
“About 200 million tons of corn are sold annually in the world, of which the share of Ukraine is 30-35 million tons. About 250 million tons of wheat are sold around the world, Ukraine supplies 25 million tons. — in the TOP-5 largest exporters in the world. If there is no offer from the country, then wheat and corn will rise in price. And not all countries will be able to afford to buy. In some countries, people may face starvation,” Gorbachev said.
At the same time, the expert noted that wheat was sown in Ukraine in the winter on an area of about 6.5 million hectares. And this is the average. For example, last season, 7 million hectares were allocated for this crop, and 6.4 million hectares the year before last.
“We expect a harvest of 28-30 million tons against 33 million tons last year. It is difficult to make accurate forecasts now, since a lot depends on the weather factors this spring - whether it will rain in Ukraine or not. I can say that most of the wheat is fertilized. As a rule, manufacturers use the time until April 1 to repair equipment. And only then they leave for the fields,” Gorbachev recalled.
According to him, it is already possible to start spring sowing in the southern regions. But now the fighting is going on in the Kherson region and in the south of Zaporozhye. And in Northern and Central Ukraine it is not yet time for sowing. For example, in the Kiev region, there is still snow on the fields, and it is too early to sow. Agricultural enterprises are supplied with seed material by 80%, all have fertilizers.
“Usually the sowing campaign starts on April 1 and lasts a month. It all depends on the cultures. First you need to sow barley, corn, later - soybeans, sunflowers. Until the end of April, the sowing campaign is usually completed, but sometimes work continues until mid-May, ”he summed up.